Chances improved Wednesday night for development of two tropical systems, according to the National Hurricane Center'slatest tropical outlook.
Invest 90L, which has brought widespread flooding to South and Southwest Florida over most of the week, has moved off the east coast of Florida.
As it moves into the Atlantic, it's possible it could run into conditions and become the season's first tropical storm, Alberto, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist atWeatherTiger.
It's not the only system showing potential for tropical development. Another system in the western Gulf of Mexico that appeared on the Hurricane Center's map Wednesday now has a 40% chance for development over the next seven days.
"A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week," according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean.
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Will Invest 90L become Alberto, first named storm of 2024 hurricane season?
"While this disturbance (Invest 90L) will not become a named tropical storm before clearing Florida, local impacts will continue to be significant, particularly in Southwest Florida," according to Truchelut, who works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
"Rain coverage in Florida should decline on Friday as the area of low pressure moves away from the Southeast. As it accelerates out-to-sea, apparent wind shear will diminish, and a thermodynamic boost from the Gulf Stream may help the low snag the name Alberto.
"However, even if it does become the first named storm of 2024, there will be no further impacts on land," Truchelut said.
How much rain can Florida expect this week?
"The steadiest and heaviest rain will fall on South and Central Florida through Thursday, but more spotty downpours and thunderstorms will continue to pester the region into Saturday,"AccuWeatherSenior Meteorologist Reneé Duff said.
Rainfall over parts of South Florida will range between 18 and 24 inches, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax of 30 inches possible, according to AccuWeather. That amount of rainfall is similar to what is possible from a major slow-moving tropical storm or hurricane.
"For many areas in Central and South Florida, the rainfall over the next few days may approach or exceed the total amount of rain that fell through the first five months of 2024," AccuWeather said.
➤ Record rains hit Naples. Even more rain falls on Marco Island
The reason for the repeated downpours this week — which are helping alleviate drought conditions over the peninsula — is because there's nothing in the atmosphere to move it along.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Wednesday evening declared a "major state of emergency" for Broward, Collier, Lee, Miami-Dade and Sarasota counties after heavy rains swamped much of the southern part of the state, causing significant flooding.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Thursday, June 13:
Hurricane season 2024: What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Invest 90L: An elongated area of low pressure offshore the coast of Florida is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual development is possible while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across portions of the Florida peninsula through late this week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Tropical disturbance: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly west orwest-northwest.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
The National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on four tropical waves:
- Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave is located in the eastern Atlantic. It's moving west at 17 mph.
- Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic also is moving west at 17 mph
- Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is moving at 11 mph.
- Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave in the western Caribbean is moving west at 11 mph.
Storm tracker: Where is Invest90L going?
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Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Invest 90L is expected to continue bringing heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula through late this week.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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